A Clinton Collapse?
Front-running former first lady slipping
across-the-board in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada, assumed "sure
thing" looks like a re-run of Howard Dean's monumental, 2004 flop!
NA Democrats remain mum on who they'll support come
February 5th. Others say, "she isn't Bill Clinton!"
With
about 50 days until New Jersey plays a real role in the nomination of a major
party candidate since the days of the smoked-filled rooms, Senator Hillary
Clinton is starting to fray on the seams and buckle at the
foundation.
For
months considered by most insiders as the surest of sure bets (if such a thing
actually exists in politics), the junior senator from the empire state is not
just hearing footsteps, but is now losing her lead and the invincibility of
her assumptive nomination has all bets off.
Here
in New Jersey, there has been a conga line of support led by some of the
state's most exclusive insiders and fundraisers, all convincing themselves
Hillary is the nominee-in-waiting. Much like former Vermont Governor Howard
Dean just four years ago, the sand beneath her feet is shifting.
But
this past weekend the liberal BLOG BlueJersey.com hosted a candidate's preference forum where Hillary Clinton not
only lost, she failed to win, place or show.
While
these kinds of presidential straw polls hardly ever reflect the mood of the
electorate, the fact is momentum plays a huge role in presidential politics and the steam seems to be coming out of the Clinton candidacy in what
is perceived as one of her "safe" states.
Former
2004 VP candidate John Edwards was the surprise winner and Illinois Senator
Barack Obama finished second while Senator Clinton failed to make the cut.
Far left Congressman and UFO sighter Dennis Kucinich finished third
and ahead of the so-called, sure thing nominee.
"When
Rep. Kucinich places ahead of you in a straw poll of mostly activists and
liberals in a neighboring state, it's safe to say the door might be a bit
loose on the hinges. The fact that Senator Clinton would do this badly speaks
to her inability to articulate positions that express clarity and understanding as it pertains to Iraq as well as domestic issues. She seems to be all over the
map and that's killing her chances with those truly following this contest,"
said one local Democratic operative.
A beneficiary
of the Clinton hemorrhage seems to be Congressman Steve Rothman (D-9), a
member of the House Appropriations Committee and former member of the House
Judiciary Committee who voted against impeachment of the president some 10
years ago.
"Most
people thought Rothman was crazy to endorse so early, but right now it seems as
though he's one of just a handful of New Jersey Democrats who has it right
on the money. Given the fact the BCDO and the party chairman have failed to
make a selection, many viewed Rothman's early support for Obama as a slight to
the Bergen Democrats," said one local North Arlington Committeeman.
Rothman,
who four years ago endorsed former Democrat Joe Lieberman for the nomination
very early in the process was embarrassed by the fact Lieberman was vanquished
early in the primaries over his position of supporting the Iraq conflict.
While Rothman has since switched his position on the conflict, Lieberman lost
the Connecticut Democratic Primary to Ned Lamont last year and was re-elected
to the US Senate as an independent.
Local
Democrats, fresh off a 100-vote loss to the local Republicans on the governing
body seem more focused on local issues than the race for the presidency.
"We need to think about the 2008 council
race and get ourselves back on the winning track. With Tanelli seeking
re-election, we have a very good lead-in candidate, better than anyone the
Republicans can offer," observed Councilman Al Granell, who is also uncommitted in the Democratic
presidential sweepstakes.
"My
guess is that at some point we as a party we'll consider who is best to help us win in November. To me, that's the
paramount consideration. In 2007 we had no
coattails and no help at the top-of-the-ticket. Should Giuliani be the
Republican nominee, that could play favorably for the Republicans," said
one local Democratic strategist when asked his opinion of the 2008 presidential
race.
Is
Rothman actively pushing the Obama candidacy in North Arlington?
"It's
not his style. Rothman is passive when it
comes to issues of conscience. He'll make his case, and then let you decide
what you think is best. That process is very popular with Democrats here in
North Arlington. He's a statesman and seen as
above-the-fray. He has the respect of all Democrats here in the community. It's
a lesson other Democrats should follow who represent this community at the
county and state level," said another local Dem when speaking of the
six-term House member.
The
rumor for months has been that the Bergen County Democratic Organization (BCDO)
led by Chairman Joseph Ferriero intends to
endorse Senator Clinton sometime after the new year. Ferriero
and the BCDO has had a chilly relationship
with NA Democrats over issues such as state aid, EnCap and a general
sense that the party is less than enthusiastic with the fact Democrats deposed
of the administration of Russ Pitman, an ally of State Senator Paul Sarlo.
Some
think that if Edwards or Obama win in Iowa, all
bets are off and the impending endorsement of Clinton by the BCDO will never
occur.
"Hard to see the BCDO jump onto a sinking
ship should Hillary lose in Iowa and New Hampshire. The momentum of the
candidate who wins these races will be too much for her to handle. It's safe to
say that if either Edwards or Obama sweep in Iowa and New Hampshire, they could
well clinch the nomination come February 5th," said another local observer
of presidential politics.
At the
end of the day, does it really matter?
"New
Jersey will finally play a role in this process. How big or small will be
determined as to what happens in places like New Hampshire, Iowa and Nevada. If
it becomes a horse race, local endorsements will begin to matter. If it becomes
a juggernaut for any one candidate, it will mean rallying behind the winner so
that we can win come November. We
can't lose focus on the bigger picture and that's winning in the fall"
said a smiling Granell.
